← 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
Fire OblationTier 2
at 20th Sept Mox Saga Store Champ
decks
1
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.6%
avg ELO +5.5 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1466
· median 1466
· range 1466–1466
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1225
Q3 1387
1688
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Oblation decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
